Form Analysis - 2003 US PGA Championship
IN: News | US PGA | US PGA Championship (2003) | Preview | by Bruce Young | 14 Aug 2003
iseekgolf's Bruce Young is also the "golf major" form analyst for Centrebet and for the New Zealand TAB and here he outlines his thoughts on the leading players and the thirteen Australasians who will line up this week at the USPGA.
The 85th USPGA Championship gets underway tomorrow in Rochester, New York State, when the Oak Hill Country Club is the venue for the final major of the year.
Oak Hill Country Club plays host to the PGA for the second time, having previously staged the event in 1980 when Jack Nicklaus won the fifth and final of his PGA Championships and the second last of his eighteen major championships.
The course has staged several other major championships namely three US Opens, the last of which was in 1989 when Curtis Strange took out the event. In 1998 the US Amateur Championship was held here with Hank Kuehne winning. It was also home to the 1995 Ryder Cup when the European's had an historic and narrow win.
The par 70 course measures 7134 yards and was designed in 1924 by the great Donald Ross whose other gems include Pinehurst # 2. It underwent significant redesign in 1994 by Craig Schreiner as part of the preparation for the Ryder Cup in 1995. It is another 'traditional' older style US golf course with narrow fairways measuring some twenty metres wide and if the fairways get firm this week it will place an even greater emphasis on accuracy. There has been some rain in the Rochester area and leading into the event the fairways were softer than the PGA had hoped but that can change quickly.
The defending champion for the event is Rich Beem who was a first time major winner when winning here last year and with three first time major winners already in 2003 will that be the case this week?
The Contenders
Tiger Woods
A two time winner of this event already and in the sort of form that makes him hard to overlook at any price. This however will be his last chance to win a major in 2003 which, if he didn't, would be would be the first time since 1998 that he had not won a major in a calendar year. In great form at present with his second placing at the Buick behind Furyk, his fourth placing at the British Open and his win at The Western Open. Clearly the man to beat but not unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination.
Jim Furyk
Hard not to fancy Furyk around this type of golf course given the emphasis there will be on accuracy from the tee. He bounced back from a disappointing British Open with an impressive win two weeks ago in Michigan. His amazing consistency this year with thirteen top tens in seventeen starts suggests he will be around the mark come Sunday. Four top tens in eight starts at the PGA and following his US Open win, has the major 'monkey' off his back
Ernie Els
Els was responsible for a magnificent win in Scotland three weeks ago then a perhaps disappointing, but not bad, British Open when 18th and in Colorado last week produced a strong finish for sixth. He has not finished outside the top twenty in his last eight starts this season on the USPGA Tour. Interestingly however he does not have a good record at the PGA Championship with 13th being his best in his last seven starts in the event. Every reason to think that can be improved on however.
Davis Love
A previous winner of this event in 1997. Despite some rather bizarre happenings in his personal life, Love has managed to finish seventh at the Capital Open, then fourth at the British Open and just brilliant last week winning in Colorado since. He did miss the cut at the US Open but that was likely as much to do with off course issues as those on course. Has had a remarkably consistent season overall. One of the few Americans to win his singles match here at the 1995 Ryder Cup and finished 33rd here at the 1989 US Open. Great chance.
Vijay Singh
The winner of this event in 1998 and has had several other top tens in the event. In racing parlance this guy does not know how to run a bad race it would seem. He has not finished outside the top twenty in his last eleven starts this season. He was eighth two starts ago at the Buick, tip-toed his way into a tie for second at Royal St Georges when most of the hype was about the winner and the luckless Bjorn and just last week in Colorado was again second. He has every reason to be considered a great chance to add to his two majors. Is a big tournament player no question.
Mike Weir
Weir has really paced himself since his impressive win at the Masters in April and in just five starts since, has been three times third at the Memorial, the US Open and Westchester before his 28th place at the British Open, then missed the third round cut last week You get the feeling that this guy is very much aware of the dangers of the demands on a recently crowned major winner and has gone about things the right way. Now a major winner and reason to believe he can do it again. Tenth his best in four times at the PGA but he is a different golfer these days.
David Toms
The last few months of the year have certainly been a lot better than the first few for Toms. His win at the Wachovia event got things going and there have been three top tens since including the win in Memphis. Missed the cut after a first round 80 at the British Open however and surprisingly, on a course on which he has won, missed the third round cut at The International so there is a little concern about his immediate lead in form. He won this event in 2001 in a shootout with Phil Mickelson.
Kenny Perry
Perry has been simply amazing in the last two and a half months having had seven consecutive top tens, including three wins in that time. If he can maintain what has been, no doubt, an exhausting time in contention for so long, he is a chance again here. He was eighth two weeks ago at the Buick and fourth the week before in Hartford. The PGA owes him one as it was at this event in 1996 he made his biggest mistake in golf by not preparing himself for a playoff with Mark Brooks and missed his best chance to win a major. He might just do it this year.
Phil Mickelson
What can you say about Mickelson. He continues to tease but fails to produce in terms of that much sought after first major. His form in recent months until last week's sixth placing in Colorado, had been very ordinary by his standards, with not one top ten in his nine starts, prior to last week, since his third at the Masters. Five top tens in this event including his second to David Toms in 2001. Certainly capable of another good finish but has to be taken on trust.
Padraig Harrington
Harrington has shown in recent times that US golf is no barrier to him. He was 17th in this event last year and was fifth at the US Open in 2002 and tenth this year. After a great run earlier in the year with wins in Germany and several good placings in the US however, he just seems to have gone of the boil of late. Missed the cut in Ireland at his last start and there is now a question-mark over his participation due to the possible arrival of his first born.
Retief Goosen
Until last week's second placing in Colorado had not been quite as sharp in recent times as we know he is capable of. Tenth at the Open Championship at his previous start but apart from that nothing special other than his performance in Colorado which may just give him a much needed boost.
Justin Leonard
Leonard showed mixed form last week in Colorado when missing third round cut and in his previous start at the British Open he perhaps surprisingly, missed the cut. Played well earlier in the year including his win at the Honda Classic and two top tens in Texas in May but it has not been so good since then. Has had top tens in his last two starts in this event including fourth last year and is likely to bounce back.
Chris DiMarco
He was second in Michigan at his last start and apart from a missed cut at the British Open his year has been a very good one. Good week last week when fourth and might be an each way chance at slightly longer odds.
Sergio Garcia
The swing changes he has been making now seem to be taking effect with a few very good finishes of late including his tie for fourth at the British Open and for what it is worth a win at the Battle of the Bridges with Mickelson. He was one of the few to have played this course in tournament golf having made the semi finals at the US Amateur here in 1998. An 81 on Sunday in Colorado leaves a question mark however although he has shown previously that he can bounce back.
Thomas Bjorn
Bjorn has returned to the form we know he is capable of with his second placing at Royal St Georges, his playoff loss in Ireland and a solid week last week in his homeland. He was also second to Harrington in Germany earlier in the season. Now that he has the confidence back he may well go very close here. He was third in this event in 2000 behind Tiger Woods and Bob May.
Bob Estes
Estes has had several top tens in this event and has played well, if not great, of late. A very accurate player which will no doubt be a very good attribute around Oak Hill. Needs a good finish to make US Presidents Cup team.
Scott Verplank
Verplank might just surprise at longer odds here. His missed cut at British Open is of no great concern and in his only start since at the Buick he was solid if not great. He does not have a good major record but might surprise here at longer odds.
Jerry Kelly
Kelly has been in very good form this year despite a shocker at the British Open. An eleven at the first hole there did not help. Played ok at the Buick at his last start and although it is hard to see him winning may just slip into a placing.
Chad Campbell
Although a relative newcomer to the PGA Tour, Campbell is playing well enough to be considered. His 15th at the British Open was a very good performance and only the second time he has made the cut in seven starts in majors but he is playing very well at present. Did miss the third round cut last week in Colorado but that is no real indication of form for this type of course. Accurate player with a long shot chance.
Charles Howell III
Has had a very solid year missing just the one cut but he has not finished his events off well. He will win a major maybe more one day and might play well here.
Fred Couples
Couples has missed just one cut in thirteen starts this season and although his form is not quite as good as it was in March and April he may surprise especially if his back holds out.
Ben Curtis
Can't leave the British Open champion out but it is hard to see lightning striking twice. Couple of good rounds in Michigan two weeks after Royal St Georges and I guess if he is good enough to win against the best the world can offer once then he might do it again but not likely, at least this soon.
Stewart Cink
Cink is playing very solidly including a reasonable week last week in Colorado. Has played well in the majors and on courses such as this where patience and accuracy are a virtue and it may be the case again this week.
The Australasians
Robert Allenby
Allenby's record in the majors speaks for itself. In thirty majors to date his best has been tenth (twice). Hardly the sort of stuff you could expect to be confident about backing. At his best he can beat anyone but there seems to be a block there for some reason. He is mixing some very good finishes with some ordinary ones of late. Tenth last week in Colorado
Peter Lonard
Lonard was 17th last year in this event and he continues to be there or thereabouts most times he plays these days. Lonard is not far short of the elite level in the game and if he continues to put himself into position to win he will soon. Has not won outside of Australia but that seems sure to be put right before too long.
Stephen Leaney
Leaney's form since the amazing second placing at the US Open has been rather ordinary but he has now proved to himself that he can compete at the highest level. I can't see him going that close again however in a hurry. Missed the cut in Colorado last week.
Stuart Appleby
Appleby has shown in the past with his fourth place at the 2000 PGA (4th) and at the 2002 British Open (2nd) that he is capable of a big finish in events such as these. Leading Australian at the recent British Open and did well last week in Colorado when 13th. Has the added incentive of needing a big week to either make the Presidents Cup top ten or impress Gary Player enough to give him a spot.
Adam Scott
Played at this course in the 1998 US Amateur and won two weeks ago in Sweden. His form prior to that win was patchy and I'm still not convinced his game is quite ready for him to challenge at this level but he is going to one day.
Craig Parry
Apart from a top ten in Japan a few weeks ago has had an ordinary run of form this season. 59th at the British Open and although he found form at this time of the year last year at the NEC event after four missed cuts, it is hard to see him doing well. A good finish however would bring him into calculation for the Presidents Cup
Geoff Ogilvy
Ogilvy is a brilliant golfer on his day but the problem is we are never quite sure when that is going to be. His last round 65 for second at the Buick was spectacular but it had followed several missed cuts and that typifies his game somewhat. On his day he can beat anyone but he needs a greater level of consistency to challenge in an event and on a golf course like this. When he finds that consistency he will do so. 8th place last week in Colorado has him in fine form coming into this week.
Greg Norman
This will be his second tournament in a row which is exactly what Norman needs if he is to challenge in a USPGA Tour event again. He did however withdraw in Colorado so some concern over that as this is written. The stop start nature of his play is not allowing him to gain any momentum but with a week in Colorado behind him we may see him playing well at least early in the event.
Rod Pampling
Pampling has found some form again after a run of poor finishes in May and June. Fourth at the B.C. Open, 11th at Hartford and 24th last week, along with three top tens earlier in the season, suggest that he has the game to compete at a reasonably high level on the PGA Tour but this is the highest level. This will be just his second major in the US and third overall, having missed the cut at the 1999 British Open and this year's US Open.
Aaron Baddeley
Baddeley is back playing after his problems with injury and illness over the last three months or so. Has played well enough to make a couple of cuts of late (68th at Hartford, 61st in Sweden and 33rd last week) but not well enough to threaten here.
Andre Stolz
Andre is a much improved player in the last twelve months. Leads Australasian Order of Merit and has won in Japan and on the Nationwide Tour this year. Deserves a chance to test himself on the PGA Tour where he will find himself on a regular basis in 2004 and may do well, although he has not played competitively for a few weeks.
Michael Campbell
The New Zealander back in some form again following his win Ireland but this is America and this is a major, neither of which has been kind to Campbell. If he could work out a way to reproduce his European game here he might contend but it is hardly likely. He has the added incentive of a very good finish perhaps rattling the cage of Presidents Cup captain Gary Player but it is hard to see it happening.
Phil Tataurangi
It would be great to see him do well but with only one event (the missed cut at the Buick) in recent months it is hard for him to expect much more than a made cut. Perhaps a little early after his return from injury for any of us to expect much more.
