Form Guide - 2005 US Masters
IN: News | US PGA | US Masters (2005) | Preview | by Bruce Young | 04 Apr 2005
Tiger Woods
Woods is likely to be the favourite although he is not the automatic favourite that he has tended to be previously. He has several challengers both on the course and on the betting boards. His record here of three wins in his eight starts as a professional is impressive, but the last two years have not been quite so good. Disappointed at the recent Players Championship on a golf course where wayward driving was heavily penalised but there is more room from the tee this week. His last two starts at Bay Hill and Sawgrass create a little bit of concern, but he will still be the one most are watching out for.
Ernie Els
Els has not won at Augusta but despite this, his record is outstanding. In his last six times he has not been outside the top six and last year narrowly missed winning his first green jacket. Like Woods he has not put it together in his last two starts but his form prior in Dubai and Qatar was faultless and his game is in good shape. He represents a good each way bet as he is likely to finish amongst the placegetters, if not on top.
Phil Mickelson
Mickelson is now considered a serious contender in all majors after finally getting across the line here last year. Six consecutive top tens at Augusta before his breakthrough last year indicates that the lefty's game suits Augusta as it tends to favour players who can work the ball right to left (you can talk to a fade but not a draw). His form before his 40th at the Players Championship was brilliant and he can be forgiven for his one bad run there. As is his normal pattern, he is playing the BellSouth in freezing weather as his lead up. He was 10th there last year before his big week following and this year is also in contention.
Vijay Singh
Singh has played beautifully here in recent years including his win in 2000 and hardly ever seems to be out of contention in anything he lines up in these days. He hasn't put a foot wrong this season and as a previous winner of the event and as the world number one, he perhaps deserves more respect than his current fourth place in favouritism suggests. His 12th place at the Players was the best of "the big four" who played there.
Retief Goosen
Outside of the big four, the value odds start to kick in. His record here of late is good, finishing second to Woods in 2002 and twice 13th in each of the last two years. He is playing very well at present, his 12th place at the Players Championship a good solid week. It would be no great surprise if he was to add a third major to his two US Open crowns. Playing the BellSouth as lead up and playing well at present.
Padraig Harrington
The talented Irishman seems close to becoming the first European to win a major since Paul Lawrie at Carnoustie in 1999. After a great start at the Players Championship he fell away, perhaps affected by his father's recently diagnosed illness. His win at the Honda two weeks earlier was a breakthrough for him in the US and with two or three solid finishes here, he is a likely contender if he is able to focus on the job at hand and, indeed, if he plays.
Davis Love III
Love has had some good and bad form this year but his 8th placing at the Players Championship was both impressive and encouraging. He regularly plays well at Augusta having been twice second and with what appears to be improving form, he may well be a factor. He has played on a limited basis in 2005 so whether he is sufficiently tournament hardened remains to be seen.
Adam Scott
Scott played well at the Players Championship and with his win earlier in the year at Riviera, he is in good form. Unlike last year he took last week (BellSouth) off and will be well prepared for the possibility, albeit remote, of becoming the first Australian to win a major since 1995. He played well on debut in 2002 when 9th, but has to some extent disappointed since although he is just that much more established now.
David Toms
Toms has had a couple of top tens on the Augusta layout but overall his record is nothing special. His win at the Accenture was significant and followed that up with two further good finishes. A last round of 82 at the Players Championship can be forgiven as he wasn't alone on a very difficult day. He is one of the world's best now and does have a major win (2001 USPGA) behind him so is not scared to make it happen. If he did get across the line it would not be a huge surprise but I probably like others more.
Sergio Garcia
Garcia is arguably the best player not to have a major to his name as yet. His 4th placing last year gave an insight as to what he is capable of and although he has done nothing special this year, he has done little wrong. His timing might be perfect to peak at the right moment.
Mike Weir
Weir had a solid week at the Players Championship and the 2003 Masters champion appears to have done enough of late to warrant consideration. He missed the cut last year twelve months after his win, but that may have been as much to do with the hype that a defending champion receives than anything else. His short game has not been as sharp as normal this season but if that improves, then he is a chance. Augusta seems to suit left handers.
Stewart Cink
Cink has done nothing special at Augusta but has had several solid finishes and the world number 10 has been in good form this season with four top tens in eight starts. His last round of 78 at the Players Championship, when in contention, was excusable given the nature of the last day there. He is playing the rain disrupted BellSouth last week. Safely made cut at BellSouth.
Jim Furyk
Furyk has often played well here without winning. He was fourth at this last start in 2003, having missed last year's event through injury. He missed the cut at the Players Championship but was approaching his best form just prior with good weeks at the Ford and Honda events. While a win might surprise, given the disruptive nature of the last twelve months, at best he is good enough to do so.
Luke Donald
Donald is one of the most impressive young players in the game and although this will be his first visit to Augusta, he is in such good form that he may figure at some stage. He withdrew from the BellSouth late in the piece, citing shoulder concerns, but that may have been as much precautionary as any real problem. He will likely win this event one day but this year may be a bit soon given his lack of experience around Augusta. Only one player since 1935, Fuzzy Zoeller, has won at his first attempt.
Darren Clarke
Despite making five of seven cuts here and finishing 8th on debut, he has not been a regular contender for top honours. His form in the US in recent weeks has been very good apart from an ordinary week at the Players Championship and that may assist in a better finish at Augusta than that in recent years but I can't get excited about his winning prospects.
Chris DiMarco
DiMarco has played Augusta very well in his three attempts. While it is difficult to convince myself to see DiMarco putting on the green jacket in Butler's cabin on Sunday, his relationship with Augusta is such that a good finish is again possible. The only concern is that he is playing poorly at present. He was runner up at the Accenture to Toms, but that apart, his best in five strokeplay events in 2005 is 44th - hardly inspiring. He was beaten in a playoff for the PGA last year so major golf is not exactly out of his league.
Stuart Appleby
Appleby has a shocking record at Augusta for a player of his quality and it is hard to see it getting much better this year, given his recent form. He was great at the start of the year winning the Mercedes Championship but since then and the birth of his first child his focus seems to be elsewhere. He has not played badly, but the Stuart Appleby we know has been missing. Hard to see things getting much better at a course on which, for some reason, he seems to struggle. He withdrew from BellSouth.
Zach Johnson
Johnson is developing into such a good player that he must be considered despite the fact that this will be his first time at the Masters. He has played beautifully in recent weeks and is going well again at the BellSouth. If he had been to Augusta previously then he would be a serious contender but may still be a good each way chance.
Tom Lehman
At his best Lehman regularly contended at Augusta but in recent years as his overall form has slipped, so has his Augusta record. Over the last eight or nine months however, Lehman has slowly worked his way back inside the top 25 in the world and following his second at the Players Championship there is every reason to believe he can figure here. A good long shot chance.
K.J. Choi
Choi produced a great finish last year when third and in 2003 was 15th on debut, rather impressive. He has played okay this season without doing anything of note, his best coming at Bay Hill three weeks ago when 8th. As he drives down Magnolia Lane this week and reflects on last year which included an eagle two at the 11th on the last day, he might just get the inspiration for something better.
Kenny Perry
Perry has a record at Augusta that he can hardly boast about. He has made only two cuts in seven attempts but he has of course won in recent weeks in the US and is a quality player. His record is of concern however and on that alone he is hard to have. He played the BellSouth in his lead up but missed cut.
Justin Leonard
Leonard was a winner earlier this year at the Bob Hope but since then has gone right off form. He has missed the cut only twice at Augusta in ten attempts, although his best form there was earlier in his career. It is a bit hard to get excited about his most recent form.
Charles Howell III
Howell has played well in his three starts making all three cuts and finishing 13th in 2004. Earlier in his life Howell was a scoreboard attendant during the Masters but he now has a chance to have greater impact on the leaderboard this year. Played well early in the season in 2005 but that good form has dropped away a little of late. Could be considered some sort of chance for a place.
Fred Couples
Couples has an outstanding record around this golf course and his 6th place last year, at a time when his lead up form was no better than it has been this year, highlights just what he is capable of with his mind on the job. His 8th place at the Bay Hill three weeks ago suggests his form is not too bad at present. Perhaps a place chance.
Paul Casey
If he hadn't opened his mouth a few months ago in a tirade against Americans he would be some sort of threat this week. He may yet still be but he will have the scrutiny of some rather upset Americans watching his every move. After such an impressive debut last year when 6th, he was looking good to do even better this year. He missed the cut at the Players just a week after winning against a much weaker field in China but he if he can focus on the job then he can do well. Too much of a gamble on that basis for me though.
Jose Maria Olazabal
Olazabal is yet another Spaniard, along with Garcia and Jimenez, with more than an outside chance of featuring. He has one of the great Augusta records with several good finishes here in addition to his two victories. His last two starts in Tucson and at the Players have yielded top tens and given his love affair with Augusta that is good enough form to suggest he is a serious chance and at good odds. He might be 97th ranked in the world but he has a much better chance than that would suggest. A good bet at longer odds. He is playing very well in the BellSouth in his lead up.
Lee Westwood
Westwood seems to be getting back to where he was in the game several years ago. His form this year has been solid if unspectacular but with five previous starts at Augusta, including a best of 6th in 1999, he has Augusta experience on his side.
Miguel Angel Jimenez
Jimenez is yet another Spaniard who has some sort of chance this week. He has been again in fine form and although he is a little underdone in terms of tournament starts this year, he has done enough to suggest that he may go okay. He was second in Dubai to Els then at the recent Players Championship he had one of the better last rounds after a third round 80 cost him any chance. He was 10th in 2001 and 9th in 2002 indicating that he handles Augusta reasonably well. He is not as far away from winning a major as it may first appear. He was, after all, runner up to Woods at the US Open a few years ago. Played BellSouth in lead up.
The Other Australians
Robert Allenby
Like Appleby, Allenby doesn't have an Augusta record to boast about with 29th being his best in five attempts. Despite missing the cut at the Players he has played well enough in recent weeks to be confident about doing well here, but his Augusta record is of concern. He is playing at BellSouth in his lead up.
Craig Parry
Parry is the sort of player to tough it out and has a chance of being the leading Australian. In eight times to Augusta his best has been 13th in his second visit in 1992, when he led into the final round. He has played very well over the last few weeks in the US without doing anything special. His last round of 81 at the Players Championship, after being in contention, was disappointing but his experience here and his tenacity will go a long way towards a good finish.
Peter Lonard
Lonard will play Augusta for the third time. He improved last year on his debut, but has yet to play the weekend in his two attempts. The subtleties of Augusta are now more familiar to him but since his great form late last year in Australia and his good start to the 2005 USPGA Tour, he seems to have gone off the boil. He has missed three of his last five cuts which is hardly convincing for his task this week. He is playing BellSouth in his lead up and has safely made the cut.
Mark Hensby
Hensby plays Augusta for the first time this week and just his second major. Despite winning on the USPGA Tour in 2004 and doing a great job for the balance of the year, he is not playing well enough now and of does not have the Augusta experience to feature on debut.
Nick O'Hern
O'Hern is here for the first time and deservedly so. This will be just his fifth appearance in a major championship but in many ways he has the type of game to do well at major golf, with a game built around percentage play. I certainly can't see him becoming the third successive left hander to win at Augusta, especially on debut, but he adds interest from an Australian perspective. He played well at the USPGA last year when 31st after being in contention during the last round. He has had a great last twelve months and making the cut here would add to that.
Rod Pampling
Pampling is also on debut at Augusta and although he continues to lift his standing in the game, it will be his lack of experience at Augusta that will be his biggest hurdle. There is so much to learn about this layout - before it is possible to tame it - that this will be a learning experience for him that he can hopefully capitalise on in future years. He has struggled a little this season, although the distraction of the birth of his first child has no doubt been a pleasant one. His 27th place at the recent Players Championship was better than it appears on paper.
My thoughts are that Mickelson and Els are the likely contenders for victory amongst the leading favourties. Mike Weir would be my next choice from the group just outside the favourites, Jose Maria Olazabal, Tom Lehman, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Fred Couples the best long shots with Parry and Scott to head the Australians.
