Tour Championship form analysis

BY Bruce Young | US PGA Tour | 2011 PGA Tour Championship | Preview | 20 Sep 2011

The FedEx Cup playoffs have arrived in Atlanta for this week’s Tour Championship. After starting with 125 players in New Jersey a month ago, the number of players who have made it to the East Lake Golf Club has been reduced to just the thirty leaders on the FexEx Cup points table.

The East Lake Golf Club has played host to this event in all but three occasions since 1998 and for the last seven years consecutively so there is the opportunity to consider disclosed form on the golf course as part of our assessment criteria.

All 30 players have a mathematical chance of taking the FedEx Cup and the accompanying US$10 million but for other than the top five players they will be reliant on the efforts or otherwise of others. If any of the current top five were to win this week then they take out the huge bonus and the silverware.

There are bonus monies all the way down the list however with the runner-up securing a US$3 million annuity, third receiving $2 million and so on down.

Let’s take a look at the leading chances in order of the their standing on the points table along with the Australians in the field.

Webb Simpson

Simpson has been the standout of the latter half of the regular season on the PGA Tour. Victories at the Wyndham Championship and Deutsche Bank Championships and another good tournament last week in Chicago have him as arguably the hottest player in the game right now. This will be his first start at the Tour Championship.

Dustin Johnson

Johnson had a surprisingly horror week last week in Chicago when defending the BMW title but his form prior had been outstanding when finishing runner-up at the Open Championship and winning the Barclays Championship. Johnson will be playing the event for the third occasion and will be looking for something better than his previous best 22nd. On paper he should.

Justin Rose

Rose earned himself a start in Atlanta courtesy of his great week last week at the BMW in Chicago where he led from wire to wire to win his first win of the season. Rose has been to Atlanta only twice and like Johnson has done nothing extra special when he has but he will be inspired by his effort last week.

Luke Donald

Donald is the world number one and last year finished runner-up to Vijay Singh in this event. Donald has been in outstanding form in 2011 not only as a result of his three victories but the numerous top five finishes he has recorded. He recovered nicely from a slow start last week in Chicago and deserves to be the favourite.

Matt Kuchar

Kuchar is another whose form has to be read to appreciate just how consistent he has become. He has only played this event once previously and finished only 25th when doing so last year but he has developed into such a consistent golfing machine he should do well. Last week was a bit of a mixture for him but a final round of 69 was good enough for him to be a factor again this week.

Brandt Snedeker

Snedeker was a little disappointing last week in Chicago more especially over the weekend after what had been two good weeks immediately before. Snedeker has played the Tour Championship on only one previous occasion finishing 29th in 2007.

Nick Watney

Watney put together a very good final round last week at the BMW after what had been a slow start to the week. If he has found the ingredient he has been looking for then he can be a factor especially as he has played this tournament well in the two times he has made it this far. He finished 4th last year which included a brilliant third round of 63.

Chez Reavie

Reavie has been one of the surprise packages of the 2011 season. In the past two months he has put together a run of good tournament finishes including when runner up to Simpson in Boston. He again played well last week in Chicago when finishing 8th. Reavie gets to play his first Tour Championship this week but given the quality of his play in recent weeks a good tournament is not beyond him

John Senden

Senden’s brilliant effort last week to finish runner-up to Justin Rose ensured he earned a start at the Tour Championship for the second occasion having finished 10th there in 2009. Senden is one of the game’s best ball strikers and if he can continue the putting improvement he showed last week then he has a chance on bettering his impressive effort last year.

Jason Day

Day had a very ordinary tournament last week in Chicago by his current standards. He can be forgiven the one bad run as they would say in racing parlance. He has played the Tour Championship just the once when finishing 17th last year and there is little doubt he is a considerably better and more experienced player now. I see him bouncing back very quickly.

Gary Woodland

Woodland has developed into a very consistent performer on the PGA Tour this season and was a winner earlier in the year. He was solid last week when 16th in Chicago. This will be his first visit to the Tour Championship but there is little doubt of the game he possesses.

Steve Stricker

Stricker withdrew from last week’s event in Chicago with an injury but his form prior was good as you would imagine from the world number four player and the leading world ranked player in this field. If he has been able to get suitable treatment for the arm injury then he is still likely to play but it is of some concern that he was forced to withdraw last week from an event that meant a lot to him.

K.J. Choi

Choi is not at the same level of form he was enjoying when winning the Players Championship earlier in the season although in his favour he put together a good tournament last week when 10th in Chicago. He has finished inside the top ten in each of the last two occasions he has played the Tour Championship so he could be a surprise contender at longer odds.

Phil Mickelson

Mickelson finished a long way back in Chicago last week although Cog Hill had never been all that good to him anyway. His 10th in Boston the week before was reasonable enough and importantly Mickelson has won twice at East Lake.

Mark Wilson

Wilson, who won twice early in the season, started last week’s event well when he led into the weekend. He fell away badly over the final 36 holes however and on that basis alone I can’t get excited about his chances.

Other Australian chances

Adam Scott

Scott is a previous winner of this event and although a little inconsistent in recent starts his win at the Bridgestone in August reminded us all of how good he is. He finished off last week with a final round of 68 and could well repeat his 2006 victory.

Geoff Ogilvy

Ogilvy has produced a remarkable effort just to sneak inside the field for this week’s event after appearing to have little chance of making it this far a couple of weeks ago. His third place finish in Chicago which not only assured him of a start this week but a Presidents Cup berth also will have him in good spirits and as a proven big event player his chances are good.

Aaron Baddeley

If Baddeley is to have any chance of making it to Royal Melbourne it would seem he needs a very strong week and even that might not be good enough. Baddeley has played this event only once previously when 24th in 2008. Baddeley played well enough last week when 22nd but I certainly don’t think a very big week is beyond him.

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